BASF raises its 2026 earnings range and says it will not overpay for Evonik

BASF lifted its full-year earnings outlook on 28 October after a third quarter in which EBITDA before special items rose 15% to €1.6 billion. The group now expects 2026 EBITDA before special items of €7.4 billion to €7.8 billion, up from the €6.9 billion to €7.7 billion range it had been guiding to. Chief executive Markus Kamieth said the year-to-date strength of the core businesses "gives us confidence to narrow our forecast range for EBITDA before special items upward."

The numbers

Quarterly sales came in at €16.4 billion, 14% higher than a year earlier. Most of that was price, which added 12%, with volumes up 2%. The EBITDA margin held at 10.0%. Indian Chemical News reported that analysts had been expecting adjusted EBITDA of around €1.50 billion.

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Below that line the picture was less tidy. Special items took €437 million off EBITDA, mainly restructuring at Ludwigshafen and a legal settlement in Care Chemicals, and a €318 million impairment in the Monomers division pushed EBIT to a loss of €98 million. Net income was €155 million, against €172 million a year earlier. Free cash flow improved to €523 million, and BASF left its full-year cash flow guidance of €1.5 billion to €2.3 billion unchanged.

What Kamieth said about Evonik

The Evonik approach was not mentioned in the release, but it dominated the results day. According to cash.ch, Kamieth described a combination as a logical step, said the two portfolios complement each other well and argued that consolidation in European chemicals has already started. He was equally clear that BASF would only proceed if the deal made economic sense for its shareholders and that it would not pay an excessive price. He declined to comment on the state of talks, but said they would not run on for years.

A summary of the analyst call by MarketBeat adds that a deal of this size would need regulatory approval and would not be expected to close before 2028. As we reported last week, BASF's offer was reported at €24 per share. Evonik publishes its own third-quarter figures on 3 November, according to Börse Global.

Leaner at the centre

The results also show how far BASF's own restructuring has gone. Headcount is down by about 8,600 since the start of 2024, leaving roughly 93,000 employees, and the group is targeting €2.3 billion of annual cost savings by the end of 2026, cash.ch reported. MarketBeat's call summary notes that capital spending for 2026 is now expected to come in clearly below €3 billion.

Why it matters for R&D software

BASF and Evonik are two of the largest R&D organisations in chemicals. A richer BASF can afford a higher offer, but a chief executive talking about discipline, plus a likely 2028 close if a deal happens, points to a long period of uncertainty for anyone with either company in their pipeline.

What it means for hiring

In our view, a cost-focused buyer with a possible mega-merger on the horizon will scrutinise every new software commitment. Vendors need account leads who can build a business case in euros saved, not just features.
A long, uncertain timeline favours land-and-expand. Customer success and solution consultants who can keep existing BASF or Evonik users productive are worth more than another new-logo hunter right now.
Restructuring at large chemical groups continues to release experienced R&D, digital and formulation people. That is a useful talent pool for informatics vendors hiring pre-sales and product roles.

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